A state-space-based prognostics model for lithium-ion battery degradation

This paper proposes to analyze the degradation of lithium-ion batteries with the sequentially observed discharging profiles. A general state-space model is developed in which the observation model is used to simulate the discharging profile of each cycle, the corresponding simulation parameter vector is treated as the hidden state, and the state-transition model is used to track the evolution of the parameter vector as the battery ages. The EM and EKF algorithms are adopted to estimate and update the model parameters and states jointly. Based on this model, we construct prediction on the end of discharge times for unobserved cycles and the remaining useful cycles before the battery failure. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated using a real lithium-ion battery degradation data set.